BB: The Age of the Kingpin: Power in the New Transactional World Order
The rules-based international order is not simply weakening; it is increasingly giving way to a more transactional system where geopolitical bargaining, sectoral deals, and geoeconomic interests override shared norms. In this environment, values such as democracy, the rule of law, and human rights remain rhetorically central but are applied selectively, while traditional frameworks, such as the divide between democratic and authoritarian worlds, lose explanatory power.
The concept of the “kingpin” captures a new type of political leadership emerging in this fragmented order. Kingpins are strategically adaptive leaders who thrive in a system defined by competing external actors and weak normative coherence. Rather than aligning firmly with one bloc, they act as brokers, compartmentalizing relationships, balancing between powers, and converting formal compliance with international rules into domestic political legitimacy while hollowing out their substance.
Hungary under Viktor Orbán serves as the central case study. While remaining embedded in EU structures, Orbán simultaneously cultivates ties with Russia, China, and U.S. conservative networks, positioning Hungary as an intermediary across geopolitical and sectoral arenas, particularly in energy politics and regional dynamics in Central and Southeastern Europe. The discussion also briefly touches on Edi Rama’s leadership in Albania as an additional illustration of how leaders in smaller states can leverage transactional dynamics to expand their political and diplomatic manoeuvring space, especially during the country's EU integration process.
The seminar examines how this “kingpin” model of leadership operates within a fragmented international system and why existing frameworks of democratic backsliding struggle to capture this form of power consolidation. It highlights how strategic brokerage has become a new source of influence in global politics, where survival and power often depend less on ideology than on transactional skill.
Donika Emini, PhD, is a Research Fellow at the University of Graz. She holds a PhD from the University of Westminster in London, a Master of Public Policy from the University of Erfurt, and a BA in Political Science from the University of Prishtina.
A scholar of international relations and an expert on the Western Balkans, foreign policy, and regional cooperation, Donika was a Reagan-Fascell Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy in 2024. She is a member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG).
Donika has extensive experience in policy research, governance, and regional cooperation. She previously served as Executive Director of the CiviKos Platform, a consortium of 300 civil society organisations in Kosovo, and worked for the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies. She has also held research fellowships at the EU Institute for Security Studies in Paris, Transparency International in Berlin, the Balkan Policy Institute, and the Consulate General of the Republic of Kosovo in New York, and served as a country analyst for Freedom House. Her work focuses on EU global actorness, negotiations, conflict management, the EU-facilitated dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, and security cooperation between the EU and the Western Balkans. She also has expertise in the Eastern Partnership countries, particularly in cybersecurity within EU-funded projects.