Kilometer-Scale Climate Modeling at the National Center for Atmospheric Research: Past, Present, and Future

The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly noticeable from year to year. Unprecedented floods, heatwaves, rapid snow and glacier loss, and severe storms are just a few consequences that cause a rising toll on the economy, humans, and our ecosystems. However, predictions and projections of these changes with state-of-the-art global climate and weather forecasting systems are erroneous and have barely improved over the last decades. Kilometer-scale (km-scale) modeling has emerged as a viable option to significantly improve our ability to simulate and project not only extremes but also the mean state of the climate system. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is developing and applying km-scale regional models since more than a decade. In this talk, I will summarize our main advances and remaining challenges in simulating the terrestrial water cycle and its extremes in various climate zones including mountains, plains, and coasts. Additionally, I will summarize ongoing activities to advance km-scale climate modeling at NCAR and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and highlight options to get involved in these urgently needed initiatives to provide actionable information for climate change adaption and mitigation.

A talk by Andreas F. Prein, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado/USA