One thing in advance: Peter Filzmaier could not be coaxed into predicting the election result, not even by moderator and Press Club President Sigrid Hroch. Nevertheless, the evening, hosted by the University of Graz and the Styrian Press Club at the Unicorn in Schubertstraße, was a thrilling experience. More than 50 people had accepted the invitation from Rector Peter Riedler and Press Club Managing Director Alexandra Reischl to see Austria's most renowned political scientist in person and to discuss with him.
Filzmaier provided a profound analysis of Styrian and Austrian voting behaviour since 1945, explained why voter flow analyses are much more complicated than one would think (‘many people no longer even know what they voted for four or five years ago’) and which key issues will influence the election outcome in Styria. ‘It's about the development of the country since 2019, but also about people's satisfaction with the state government.’ The latter is likely to be not very high, probably also due to the multiple crises of recent years. He provided surprising details on this, such as the fact that there are more than 1,300 registered parties in Austria.
A compliment for being boring
Other factors that play a decisive role in determining where Styrians will put their cross on 24 November include age, gender and education, the influence of federal politics and the upcoming formation of a government, and the topics that are currently being discussed the most. ‘Inflation, immigration and health were probably the top three topics this time,’ said the political scientist. And he attested the Styrian parties a ‘boring, because issue-oriented election campaign – and that is meant as a compliment’. Whereby the importance of election campaigns themselves is often overestimated. ‘Elections are won in the four years leading up to them, not in the last four weeks before the election,’ says Filzmaier.
Many interesting questions were also raised by the audience, for example, about the social media presence of the individual parties. ‘The FPÖ and the Greens were ahead of the pack from the outset. The established parties fell into the trap between tactics and strategy and did not recognise the importance of social media early enough.’
The fact that this two-hour, in-depth analysis flew by is probably also due to Filzmaier's motto: ‘I believe that, while maintaining the necessary objectivity, you also have to be able to approach politics with humour – a good democracy can withstand both.’