Every two years, the US elects 435 members of the House of Representatives and around a third of the 100 senators. These mid-term elections can shift the majority in Congress – that is, the US Parliament – in such a way that the President may or must act with greater or more limited scope for manoeuvre.
Democrats with a chance of winning both chambers
The upcoming elections on 3 November 2026 could serve as a “wake-up call” for President Trump, explains political scientist Peter Filzmaier: “It is so common for the incumbent to be punished in the mid-term elections – that is, for his party to lose votes – that people even refer to it as an unwritten law: the Iron Law of Midterm Loss.” Filzmaier sees a good chance of the Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives, as several of the contested constituencies have recently swung in their favour. And a Democratic majority in the Senate can no longer be ruled out either. Scott Zukowski, an American himself, also rates the Democrats’ chances of victory as high, but adds: “Even if the Republicans were to suffer heavy losses, we should not equate that with the end of Trumpism.”
What matters is the cost of living
The experts attribute the Republican Party’s current struggles primarily to rising inflation. “For most Americans, the cost of living has risen significantly over the past two years, not least due to the war in Iran initiated by Trump. That is bound to cost them votes,” Zukowski is convinced. Filzmaier also confirms that economic dissatisfaction generally often determines the outcome of US elections. The political scientist further observes that certain voter groups are increasingly turning away from the President and his party: moderate Christians, Latinos and independent voters.
Trump’s name is becoming a liability
Zukowski also recognises changes within the Republican Party: “Candidates are distancing themselves from Trump more frequently and more clearly. His name has lost its value and is even becoming a liability in some situations. However, this distancing – which may be temporary – does not necessarily mean a permanent break with the president. It may also be a short-term tactic to mobilise voters who, whilst disliking Trump, have a positive view of the Republicans as a whole.”
The incumbent himself is also currently pulling out all the stops, as Peter Filzmaier notes: “After he had, by decree in the spring, made postal voting – in which his party usually receives far fewer votes – vastly more difficult, he promised voters financial handouts, lifted a package of sanctions against Russia that had only recently been agreed, and illegally squandered 19 million dollars of taxpayers’ money on TV campaign adverts. That’s his way of influencing the election campaign. Whether he can mobilise his base with this or achieve the opposite remains to be seen.”
What a Democratic majority would change
Should the Democrats recapture the House of Representatives, the balance of power in Washington would certainly shift. Filzmaier anticipates blocked legislative proposals, possible committees of inquiry and conflicts over appointments. Trump might increasingly govern by executive order, though Congress can overturn these by law. According to Filzmaier, this could potentially trigger a protracted conflict that might even lead to the US becoming ungovernable. However, Zukowski points out that it is by no means certain that the Democrats would address the political misconduct of the Trump administration: “Many Americans want investigations and consequences; others are already fed up with them. Unfortunately, there is no unified plan within the Democratic Party for how to proceed should the balance of power shift in their favour,” the researcher summarises.
Looking ahead to 2028
On election night, it is therefore worth looking beyond the mere distribution of seats. Filzmaier points to a longer-term trend in foreign policy: “Europe is losing importance for Washington, whilst Asia is taking centre stage.” Zukowski emphasises that the mid-term elections are, in fact, a series of individual campaigns with different, often local or regional issues. “That is precisely why their results will almost certainly make it clear which voter groups both parties will need to focus on in the 2028 presidential election campaign.”
